Change can be beneficial!

Congratulations for visiting our new Web site.  After our January 2009 newsletter entitled "Whew, that was close", we heard loud and clear that our readers wanted market information and perspective more frequently than quarterly.   Hence, we changed our website to address your requests.

In this new format, you will receive:

1. Market information monthly with updates that occur almost every week;
2. Our Weekly Land Market Activity Index covering the 30 counties in Virginia covered by one of our databases;
3. A chart of mortgage rates that is updated constantly.

In our new format, news articles will be posted monthly in each of three topic areas:

1.      The residential land market

2.      The timber and timberland market;

3.      And the development land market with some economic analysis. 

Our goal is to help you understand what's happening in the overall economy in general and the land market in particular.  

A Different Downdraft

In the previous three economic downdrafts that I have experienced in my career, each was driven by one or two paradigms shifting.  What is fascinating about this downdraft is that we can identify at least four paradigms that have shifted. The result is a matrix if one tries to chart out the analysis of what we are experiencing economically in order to estimate the future.

 As a result, unlike the previous downdrafts, this recovery will be much slower than many talking heads anticipate.  The economic forecasting in the media is typically looking at one or two of the paradigms not the four we believe are shifting. It is critical to understand that there are significant global forces that will cause the economic recovery to be slow and to benefit you need to factor that into your decision-making process. 

Finally, while we believe that the worst of this economic cycle is over, there will continue to be significant turmoil over the next 24 to 36 months.  Unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of decision makers in both the Obama administration and Congress have no practical business management experience but rather have backgrounds in academia and public office. 

As a result, most of the decisions being made may be emotionally appealing but have serious unintended consequences.  Therefore, the highest probability is that the current economic downdraft will appear to abate but return as the unintended consequences of those decisions and the policies of the Obama administration begin to impact the economy in 2011 and  2012. 

Our recommendation is that you tighten your seatbelt and come visit our website weekly so we can share our perspective of what is happening in the various segments of the land marketplace in specific and the economy in general.  Consistent with our goal with our clients, we want to provide you with the information you need to make wise investment decisions.

Let us know how we can help you.